2025 U.S. Open picks, odds, field: Surprising predictions from golf model that’s nailed 15 majors

2025 U.S. Open Golf Championship Preview: Oakmont Country Club Returns as Major Venue

Tournament Overview


The historic Oakmont Country Club near Pittsburgh will host its 10th U.S. Open Championship starting June 12, 2025. The challenging course, known for its demanding layout, has produced winning scores ranging from 4-under too 5-over par in recent championships, demonstrating its variable difficulty levels.

Top Contenders and Odds


Current betting favorites include World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+320) and Rory McIlroy (+550), though both have limited experience at Oakmont. Notable contenders Bryson DeChambeau (+900), Jon Rahm (+1200), and rising star Ludvig Aberg (+1800) round out the top favorites in a competitive field.

Course Experience Factor


Several major champions, including Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, and Xander Schauffele, will face Oakmont’s challenges for the first time. This lack of course familiarity could prove crucial in determining the tournament’s outcome.

Statistical Analysis


Advanced modeling suggests potential surprises, especially regarding Collin Morikawa (22-1), who ranks among tour leaders in crucial statistics:
– Top 10 in driving accuracy
– Elite approach shot performance
– superior putting average
– 3rd in birdies per round (4.69)
– 7th in strokes gained total (1.405)

Historical Context


The last U.S.Open at Oakmont (2016) saw Dustin johnson triumph at 4-under par, while Angel Cabrera’s 2007 victory came at 5-over par, illustrating the course’s potential for dramatically different scoring conditions.